IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.7	#259
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.0	#308
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-6.4	#325

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.7	#145

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	10.9	10.9	10.0

.500 or above	33.3%	55.0%	29.4%
.500 or above in Conference	44.6%	59.0%	42.0%
Conference Champion	3.2%	6.1%	2.7%
Last Place in Conference	9.7%	5.4%	10.5%

First Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
First Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Away) - 15.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 1.7	0.0 - 1.7
Quad 1b	0.1 - 1.7	0.2 - 3.4
Quad 2	0.6 - 3.4	0.7 - 6.8
Quad 3	1.5 - 4.1	2.2 - 10.8
Quad 4	9.5 - 5.5	11.7 - 16.3

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2018	136	@ Lipscomb	L	68-76	15%
Nov 13, 2018	264	Arkansas Little Rock	W	62-61	62%
Nov 20, 2018	342	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	67-59	68%
Nov 23, 2018	3	@ Kentucky	L	56-80	1%
Dec 01, 2018	60	@ Western Kentucky	L	62-76	6%
Dec 09, 2018	345	@ Coppin St.	W	67-58	68%
Dec 15, 2018	347	N.C. A&T	W	71-62	86%
Dec 18, 2018	184	@ Akron	L	63-68	25%
Dec 22, 2018	101	@ Memphis	L	60-70	13%
Dec 29, 2018	83	@ Vanderbilt	L	59-71	10%
Jan 03, 2019	287	Tennessee Tech	W	66-65	64%
Jan 05, 2019	146	Jacksonville St.	L	59-66	37%
Jan 10, 2019	273	Eastern Kentucky	W	67-66	62%
Jan 12, 2019	224	Morehead St.	L	65-67	53%
Jan 17, 2019	287	@ Tennessee Tech	W	66-65	44%
Jan 19, 2019	109	@ Belmont	L	62-71	15%
Jan 24, 2019	188	@ Austin Peay	L	66-70	26%
Jan 26, 2019	151	@ Murray St.	L	61-68	21%
Jan 31, 2019	285	Tennessee Martin	W	63-62	63%
Feb 02, 2019	308	Southeast Missouri St.	W	70-67	70%
Feb 07, 2019	224	@ Morehead St.	L	65-67	35%
Feb 09, 2019	273	@ Eastern Kentucky	W	67-66	42%
Feb 14, 2019	109	Belmont	L	62-71	30%
Feb 16, 2019	146	@ Jacksonville St.	L	59-66	22%
Feb 21, 2019	320	SIU Edwardsville	W	69-65	71%
Feb 23, 2019	298	Eastern Illinois	W	63-61	66%
Feb 28, 2019	308	@ Southeast Missouri St.	W	70-67	50%
Mar 02, 2019	285	@ Tennessee Martin	W	63-62	43%
Projected Record						11.7 - 16.3	8.1 - 9.9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.5	0.9	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.0		3.2	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	1.1	1.8	1.2	0.4	0.0				4.8	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.4	2.0	2.8	1.5	0.3	0.0					7.1	3rd
4th									0.0	0.4	2.4	3.5	2.1	0.4	0.0						8.9	4th
5th								0.0	0.8	2.9	4.5	2.3	0.4	0.0							10.9	5th
6th							0.0	0.6	3.3	4.9	2.2	0.2	0.0								11.2	6th
7th						0.0	0.4	2.9	5.0	2.5	0.3	0.0									11.0	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	2.5	4.9	2.4	0.3	0.0										10.4	8th
9th				0.0	0.2	2.1	4.4	2.9	0.5	0.0											10.0	9th
10th			0.0	0.3	1.7	3.8	2.7	0.4	0.0												8.9	10th
11th		0.1	0.6	2.1	3.1	1.8	0.4	0.0													8.2	11th
12th	0.2	0.8	1.7	1.5	1.0	0.2	0.0														5.4	12th

Total	0.2	0.9	2.3	3.9	6.0	8.2	10.4	11.7	11.9	11.1	9.8	8.2	6.5	4.2	2.5	1.3	0.6	0.2	0.0			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	92.0%	0.5		0.4	0.1	0.0
15-3	65.3%	0.9		0.5	0.3	0.0
14-4	37.0%	0.9		0.4	0.3	0.2	0.0
13-5	11.7%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.6%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	3.2%	3.2		1.6	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		4.6%		4.6%	9.3								0.0			0.0	0.0						0.0		4.6%
17-1	0.2%		5.5%		5.5%	11.0												0.0						0.2		5.5%
16-2	0.6%																							0.6
15-3	1.3%		0.0%		0.0%	12.0													0.0					1.3		0.0%
14-4	2.5%																							2.5
13-5	4.2%																							4.2
12-6	6.5%																							6.5
11-7	8.2%																							8.2
10-8	9.8%																							9.8
9-9	11.1%																							11.1
8-10	11.9%																							11.9
7-11	11.7%																							11.7
6-12	10.4%																							10.4
5-13	8.2%																							8.2
4-14	6.0%																							6.0
3-15	3.9%																							3.9
2-16	2.3%																							2.3
1-17	0.9%																							0.9
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	10.9								0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0					100.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%